I’m back, you thought you got rid of me didn’t ya? What’s a guy expected to do, show up at least 5 days a week and share nearly every thought in his pea picken brain? Well, I’m not promising a darn thing, I’ll do my best but sometimes I’ll let ya down… Life, better get used to it!

   On a serious note, there has been a lot of hub bub on the net lately about today’s topic… Although not always referred to as a MZB, it’s still the same thing. Regardless what you personally like to call them – looter, brigand, scavenger, opportunist or even neighbor… Yes, I said neighbor! What’s the thread that could connect all of these different categories… Have’s VS. have not’s!

   Just to kick things off today I’m going to go through my view of the MZB’s that we might find ourselves up against or attempting to stay out of the way of. The typical MZB that survivalist lore has made popular is the motorcycle riding, dirty cannibal that would be the scourge of the countryside in any post apocalyptic world. Is this version of the MZB wrong? Nope, it could happen, just like the fiction suggests. However, I think other possibilities are more probable!

   After any disaster that puts a serious disruption in our national supply lines we will see our world break down quickly. I dare anyone to show me ANY evidence that this wouldn’t be the typical outcome, even here in America! We have a long supply line that covers literally thousands of miles across this nation and to points well beyond our borders. I might even be able to make the case that the people in America would degenerate quicker than the people did in Haiti or Chile did recently. We are a very indulged populous and have a case of the “Entitlement Mentality” to the worst degree.

   We see signs of a moral corruption at all levels of our society and I wouldn’t trust that a disaster would bring us together in any meaningful way. Yes, after 9/11 we saw an up tick in “Patriotism”, which in this country means adding a red, white and blue bumper sticker to our Japanese made automobile. This is nothing more than feel good patriotism and is soon forgotten when the next celebrity sensationalized awards event comes around the corner.

   Hold that tar bucket for just one minute… You thought I wouldn’t see you sneaking up behind me, didn’t you! If you’re the bumper sticker having patriot – GOOD FOR YOU! I bet you had your symbolised patriotism on your rig before anything noteworthy occurred – right? If that’s you, I didn’t mean you and I think you know that… I’ve heard from more than one REAL freedom loving American, how much those Johny come lately’s pissed them off. None of this even really matters as it was just supposed to be a small example of the state of many of our countrymen. Some of the things that I’m going to say these next couple of days are bound to get a few people upset… If that’s the case, I encourage you now to use that emotion for your own good and go get your families long term survival supplies in order so the rest of us don’t have to shoot you when you turn feral!

   Since we all see at least a dozen potential disasters and half a dozen likely to happen disasters, I won’t get bogged down in the specifics. For the sake of discussion we are all facing a new reality, whatever happened left us to depend on ourselves and if we’re fortunate a few trusted neighbors or family members might lend a hand. We have little or no grid power and the grocery stores have closed there doors due to the lack of new supplies and spotty grid power. Fuel for all of our needs is sold out at all of the normal suppliers and a barter economy hasn’t been formally developed for trade beyond the end of the street you live on. So now what?

   What’s your plan? You have a plan, right? Please tell me that you thought to add a few of those $18 dollar, 50#bags of beans and rice to the storage room…? That’s a relief, I was starting to wonder about you? I know how you’re feeling, “at least you can feed your family”. Yes and I know from our past discussions you thought to put in a wood burning fireplace insert to augment that kerosene heater and the BIG closet full of sleeping bags. I don’t know about you but I have most of the same things and feel blessed to not have been killed in the disaster.

   As the uber-smart prepper folks we have proven ourselves to be, we now can rest easy… We’re well fed in our nice warm house. The kids are getting bored but that was to be expected… The solar setup and car battery will keep the XBOX going for quite a while, life’s good! With the exception of not knowing if our extended families are safe, we are in pretty good shape… As long as life returns to a semblance of normalcy in the next 6 months we should be fine. This is America, how long could this last?

   So there you sit, much the way I would be tempted to as well… Smoke rising from the chimney, muffler noise from the generator out back for a few hours each evening. Between the wife and yourself, you’ve found that beans and rice can actually be cooked into something fairly exciting… One family up the block asked for a few gallons of gas for their car so they could drive to a family members house to stay, another borrowed a few staples from the pantry… Pretty quiet on your block, lots of speculation about the gun shots off in the distance but nobody lost their mind and started killing people to steal the last can of dinty moore extra chunky style chili… yet!

   With the first week of this under your belt, life is starting to become mildly annoying. Tensions are beginning to rise as you heard through the grapevine that a couple families on your street are nearly out of food and COUNTING on the .gov getting this fixed – or else! Vehicle traffic has slowed to a trickle and you have decided to save the fuel you have left for running the generator only very rarely. This situation isn’t nearly as fun as it seemed to be at first. That J-O-B is looking better all the time but fear not or on second thought -FEAR- might be more appropriate as this is only getting started… Can you hear it in the distance  – the MZB’s are coming or are they already here????

Prepper

   I’m back and feeling a little better… I had the opportunity to really vent my spleen with a friend last night. We didn’t come up with any global solutions to this DOOM but it helped to actually vocalize my concerns. He didn’t disagree and had nothing in the way of a rebuttal. It appears that we may all be feeling the same way. This situation looks bad but we have no choice but continue to plod on each day the best we can… It’s this, best we can, idea that I want to wrap this all up with, what exactly should we all be doing right now…

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   What are the things that we all could do to better our chances of a comfortable transition to whatever might come next? Several things come to my mind and they aren’t new concepts to what we’ve already been discussing here. It appears that we’re hitting the same nails so much that we can’t help but make some progress… That is, as long as we are actually taking action, if you aren’t swinging your hammer than you may not be experiencing the results you could have!

   First, what is your debt load? Is there payments in your monthly budget that could be paid off early? Maybe moving money from a savings account to pay these debts off early would be wise? No saving account, than have a garage sale… Find some extra money that is currently being held captive in that back bedroom closet. Clean house, simplify and raise some funds that can be put to better use. I speak from experience here, I am currently doing this myself. It’s not easy to see old treasures go down the road but if I want to keep moving in the right self sufficiency direction, sacrifices must be made. 

   The debts that I would focus on are the one’s that are for anything you want to have with you on the other side of whatever is coming down the pike. For instance, if you have a truck that is intrical to your plans for the future – get it paid off! Anything that could legally be taken from you should be your highest priority. You only own the things you don’t owe on… Homes are included in this equation…

  I have to offer a quick side note… PAY ALL YOUR BILLS – DO NOT BE A DEAD BEAT! I do not hold the opinion that it is ever alright to not pay your obligations. You signed on the dotted line, now you follow through and pay the bill. A time may come where there is truly no choice but that is an entirely different subject…

   Second, we all need to make some educated guesses at what will be valuable in the coming economy… This next economy will even probably still be in dollars. It’s the value of those dollars that I call into question? Holding dollars and banking on them not being terribly devalued would be fool hardy.

   What are the tangible assets that we could buy and hold to weather the storm that will certainly bring changes to our business as usual status. Possibly items that you will need to have anyway? This approach would give us the ability to avoid any downside risk. If you were going to buy that particular item anyway, where’s the harm in buying it in advance?

   These items could fall anywhere on the spectrum from food items to truck tires. There are things that every family has to purchase and if we can identify those and agree that they will only be going up in cost, why wouldn’t we make a strategic purchase ahead of schedule?

   Obviously, we can’t purchase all of the things we’ll ever need but there are things that will put us in a better position to be self sufficient. Does anyone have children? It seems that there are always shoes or coats that have to be replaced. Maybe my daughter was different than other peoples kids but I doubt it. Each of us will have a list that will vary from the next guys but it’s worth thinking about…

   So you say you’re already squared away in the hard goods department. What else might be worth considering? How about old faithful… Precious metals? I know we are all hearing endless advertisements for these on the radio right now… Do not buy these because you heard that so and so personality is doing it. Think it through for yourself!

   I do have some silver in the form of pre-65 silver quarters, dimes and half dollars. These are a hedge as far as I’m concerned! I don’t view them as an investment per say. Yes, I do hope they go up in value but that traditionally only happens in correlation with a drop in the value of the dollar. If we do experience an inflationary event and we will, these coins could provide for my family if it came down to that.

   Whether we see inflation or an entirely new currency, precious metals as a commodity or hard currency would be convertible to what ever the powers that be had come up with to call money. Many people own these same coins as a barter good and I see the value in this as well. We are all seeking options to keep ourselves ahead of whatever curve is thrown at us.

   Another thing that I believe would be a good idea to have would be any tools of your trade. Lots of tradesmen own their own tools and have this covered but others don’t. If you’re fortunate enough to have picked a career that will be valuable in a new economy, unlike myself – paper pushing desk jockey, than be sure to have the requisite tools to perform your skill!

   For example, a man I know is a union plumber. Great pay and with seniority he’s able to avoid many of the dirtier jobs. However, he works primarily in the commercial side of the business and has a truck with everything he needs provided… Great, of course your employer should provide the required materials but what happens if you needed to do plumbing work in the “grey market” or as a barter-able skill set? Will you have the required materials to complete the job? What about the specialized tools to do a difficult project?

   We would never be able to have everything that we might possibly need for any given situation. However, there are specific items that each trade requires that if stored ahead of time would allow 90% of the typical work scenarios to be done. In addition to the idea of being able to do the work, you would be storing a hard asset in the materials. Some items are sure to change as the technology does but rarely would an item become completely obsolete. Your back stock of tools and hardware could become very valuable if and or when the local Home Depot is being run by the Chinese government. Other trades people would surely rather deal with you than them or the Mutant Zombie Bikers they hire to work the customer service counter! Just sayin, its worth thinking about…

   Did you say to yourself, “What skills do I have to offer?” I thought I heard someone in the back of the class say something… You’re not alone! Our current economy is chock full of office workers like myself that will most likely not be replaced the next time around… I have lots of “Jack of all trades” type of skills but nothing that would qualify as mastered… I’m not being humble either, I’m taking a good hard look at what value I might be if the time comes to prove my worth… I have a selection of things that I will be pursuing as a means to make myself more well rounded and also could be used to fill voids in a future society. I’ll keep you all appraised as I progress in my new skills.

   Are there personal interests or hobbies that you have now? What about that “Bucket List” of to-do’s? Find something that would be of use to your neighbors and set about learning all you can. Buy the tools and a good home study course on how to achieve some level of competence. Go take a course through the local trade school… There really is no wrong answer to this, whatever you decide is going to benefit you, even if we miss the big flush I truly believe is in the works!

   I have read or heard more times than I can count from people like us, you know “Gun Nuts”. “After the collapse I’m going to find a farmer to hire on with as security”, sounds good, do you actually have the skills to be of service to said farmer? Personally, I have the tools but they’re of far greater value than I am… I don’t get out and knock the dust off like I should. Our shooting skills are just like anything else, they have to be used to stay in practice. If we aren’t doing our part the tool will only carry us so far. Don’t get me wrong, I think there will be plenty of “Security” positions available. 30 rounds of ammo in the general direction of the gate or only 1 from cover? Your choice but I say whatever skill or skills you choose, work on perfecting them now!

   Hopefully, these ideas will get you thinking. There’s lots to do, at least for most of us and time appears to be short. We will all certainly get less done than we would have liked but if we just start we’ll get more done than if we don’t start at all… Think all of this over and see what you come up with.

   Maybe you think I’m being dramatic and everything will work itself out. The government will get this economic hemorrhage under control and we’ll see the return of the weekly shopping trips to the mall. A new car in every driveway and ever larger homes for ever smaller families. Only time will tell but either way don’t waste the time you have waiting to see if you get to be the one to point and laugh at ol’ Prepper this time,  I might just be right?

Prepper

How’s this for mainstream evidence of what I’m talking about? What do you think? The words of a US Congressman speaking directly about what we’ve been discussing? While Ron Paul is a fringe political figure, this doesn’t make him wrong! I can’t say that every single plank in his platform is going to be something that I agree with but he is the closest thing to a “Good” politician that I’ve come across. Ponderous… I wonder if he would consider himself a DOOOMER??

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   So, I wish I could say that a good nights sleep had cured my pessimistic attitude. It hasn’t though, I’m still keyed up over this subject. In the comments section “JeSter” reminded me of something I had missed… Our petro resources, these too would be valuable on the world market. Their value will only be increasing as the predicted shortages begin to come to fruition in the coming years. I wonder if this might be the reason that the oil fields of Alaska haven’t been brought into production? Maybe they don’t even belong to us anymore? This would make more sense than the thin, “save the polar bears” excuse that we keep being fed like the children the government sees us as…

   Alright, since no one has sent me a rebutal, I’ll assume we all agree the train is soon to be leaving the tracks. Is there anything that we can do to stop it? Are we going to see a breakdown of society due to the coming economic changes that inflation will bring? Will our money be of any value at all?

   A dollar collapse could have a couple of outcomes, neither of them good for the majority of us. Worse case scenario, economically speaking, would be the dollar losing all of it’s value… This would require a new currency to take’ it’s place… Hard to prepare for that eventuality since we don’t know what the currency will be… Not good, I don’t have a lot of savings in cash but what I do have is all in US dollars… I think that the more likely course the dollar will take is a traditional inflationary unwinding of its value. Day one the dollar is worth “X” then throughout the day and certainly throughout the week it loses more and more of its buying power.

   If we look to history and even what’s happening currently in places like Argentina or Zimbabwe, we’ll see that inflation is a killer. The government will be running the presses ever more often to continue adding the requisite zeros to our bills that will come with the inflation. Plan accordingly…

   Yeah right, “Plan Accordingly” -- I was just seeing if you’re paying attention! How are we suppose to plan accordingly? Many of us have food stored and certainly the guns and ammo to field an army of friends and relatives but this enemy is different. Food storage will eventually run out and the need for guns and ammo won’t be what we initially squirreled them away for. We’ll be in a world that no longer looks the way it does now. That is, unless you have already lost your job and have begun living in your car. The rest of us, well maybe no so much us but certainly our extended families and those of co-workers will have come to look like a bad dream in comparison to today…

   Anyone care to comment on this situation? All I can say to you guys is the same thing I keep telling myself… Things have been bad before, even wars that nearly bankrupt the county… Why would this be the time we actually go under? I really try to stay positive and convince myself that we will weather this storm and see a bright blue sky in the morning but I’m having a hard time buying my own story… Is there going to be a blue sky?

   Possibly, the inflated dollars will make the situation look better if we see home prices rise due to the dollars lowered value, right. An increase in home values would be a good sign, wouldn’t it? I’m afraid not, unless we have this combined with the ability of buyers to qualify for new mortgages, how could this possibly help? So, let’s say unemployment went down at the same time the inflated dollars created the rebounding home prices… Maybe that would work -- maybe? How long could that situation make a difference? Once these magically re-employed workers bought these magically re-valued homes, they would still be hard pressed to purchase the rest of their needs with those same devalued dollars…

   Anyone feel my frustration? Is this current situation sustainable? Where do we go from here? Our savior -- Obama, has lost support faster than I would have ever believed possible… Other than the goof balls that are still wearing around their Obama election T-shirts, I can’t find anyone that will volunteer that they voted for him. One of my neighbors is a life long democrat and he is animate about the country needing to get “that guy” out of there…

   I think that we are rapidly approaching “Game Over”… Maybe not in a way that will have a permanent change but I think the changes that will be required are going to be painful! It has taken us many years of financial mismanagement to get to the point we find ourselves at now. We won’t be able to get this thing turned around quickly, if at all. The only thing that could happen quickly is the situation getting worse, that could happen at almost anytime…

   We are hanging on by a thread and the government has already printed how many trillions to keep us from sliding over the edge? The country is on life support and we have leaders that are way behind on their malpractice insurance payments. It doesn’t take much to guess what’s going on in their heads… “I don’t want to be around when the family finds out I killed the patient!” I think we should be watching the exits, I don’t think they will be able to squeeze much more profit from this country and when it’s gone, I bet they will be to. These politicians can’t be as stupid as they appear! They have to see the handwriting on the wall and so do we!

   Look at this situation honestly and evaluate where you are currently and where you want to be down the road. Can you still get there? Will our children ever have a chance to achieve the lifestyle we have enjoyed? These are important questions… What are the answers?

   I’m going to sleep on this issue again and see if I can come up with a plan for us DOOMERS to build the lifeboat we’ll all be needing. A life boat to get us from where we are now to a place of safety in our uncertain future… Stick with me and we’ll wrap this all up tomorrow…

   Prepper

   Alright bring it on guys… Tell me I’m wrong and it’s only going to be a little while longer before the Obama green shoots really take hold and we see the good ol’ US of A on her feet again… SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME THAT!

   I can’t hear you, anyone there? Which sector should I keep my eye on? Banking? They did show a profit in 2009, big bonuses and all! At least to my untrained eye, it would appear that watching a sector that had to be bailed out by the government and their printing press, would be short sighted. The banks look a bit better but then again who wouldn’t if they were infused with a whole bunch of newly printed money.

   Maybe we should watch the real estate market for signs of growth? I heard on the news that the Seattle real estate market had begun a small recovery… Can you hear me laughing from where your sitting? Why would it improve? Values are still dropping and I see no reason that this trend will stop. If we only look at the supply and demand factor in this equation, we wouldn’t see a recovery for many years. I’ve been watching a subdivision of new homes that was started before the downturn began in earnest slowly continue building. It’s interesting to see this subdivision after dark. Lights are on in maybe one out of every ten homes. Can anyone tell me who is going to live in those homes?

   Ok, I’ll admit that if those new homes are priced very reasonably, someone will eventually buy them… Wait, if those homes are priced VERY REASONABLY, what will that do to your homes value? Oh yeah, it just means that your home will have to be priced even better for one of the few buyers to choose yours over a  newly constructed house… I’m getting a little of topic but I’m only trying to illustrate my point.

   Until we see something hopeful on the horizon I don’t see any reason to think that our economic situation will improve. Consumer confidence is built on something and this is not it. I continue to see the parking lot at the shopping mall full of cars but are the people inside actually buying anything? I couldn’t say for sure as I avoid the place like the devil himself was inside.

   If they are spending, what form of payment is it? More credit cards? That would only make the problem worse. My suspicion is that they’re window shopping! We should have had more of this in the years past and maybe we wouldn’t have this crushing collective personal debt load. Whenever I do find a reason to set foot inside the shopping mall, I see many vacant storefronts and fewer and fewer kiosks. If those stores were doing a decent business, they would still be in business.

   I just don’t know what to think anymore… Not that any of us would choose to go work in a shopping mall, if we had another choice but those retail jobs are just that – JOBS… Someone that was previously employed in those vacant stores has now joined the unemployment roles. Maybe that isn’t 100% true for all of them but most.

   Just like government employment, it takes tax dollars or freshly printed dollars to pay those unemployment checks. I’m not downing on government employment at all or even unemployment insurance benefits but it takes money to keep those checks flowing. That’s just the facts and right now the government is between a rock and a hard place. It’s difficult to tax workers that are already feeling the inflation or have lost their income almost completely.

   Every form of government takes copious amounts of financial inputs to stay afloat and without our ever expanding economy those inputs just aren’t available. Thankfully, we are seeing the local property taxes being lowered this year. Not a lot but since they are tied to the assessed value of the property the county government has no choice but drop the amount due. Sounds good on the face of the matter but this too is just making the overall situation worse. As much as I love to see a government office, most any government office squirm, we the people are the ones that will suffer.

   It’s already beginning to happen in some places, threatened layoffs of critical county personnel. As if firefighters and police officers would be the tax paying citizens first choice of places to make budget cuts? Even this type of move by the local government shows that they are completely unprepared for the world of tomorrow. Cutting police presence would logically come only after they had closed the schools. Does it sound strange to see someone write this? Think about it, which government worker is more important? The worker that is employed to keep you safe or the one that is hired to educate your children. Obviously, we would all prefer to have both but if you could only have one – which one would it be? Be honest!

   Let’s just look at all this practically… We have an increasing unemployment rate. Home prices dropping like rocks from a bridge to no where and politicians that can’t seem to find anywhere to cut their budgets that don’t include public safety… Whats next? Maybe we can ask our soldiers to supply their own weapons the way General George Washington did so many years ago? Unfortunately, that isn’t an option as this would undermine the assault weapons ban that is still simmering on a back burner.

   What else do we have to be watching for? I think I heard about a drought in many areas of the country, this certainly won’t end up hurting us much except at the grocery store check out stand. That’s right the USA is a net importer of food. That means simply that we are bringing in more food than we are sending out… Yes Virginia, America can’t feed itself without the help of other countries selling us their surplus. This alone is disconcerting but would be able to be overcome if we put our minds to it. Is there time and the will to change this? I guess we’ll all have the opportunity to find out…

   Are we having fun yet? I’ll risk repeating myself – Can anyone tell me what I’m missing here? Call me a pessimist but to quote Reverend Wright – “Americas chickens have come home to roost” or some other derogatory little quip. While I mean this in a very different way than the good Reverend, the effect is nearly the same…

See ya tomorrow for another chapter in the dark days of America 2010…

Prepper